Uncertainty Discussion: What is? - What I learned from four years of spending to understand this topic.
Uncertainties inevitably arise when dealing with complexity. Over the past four years working on this topic, I've realised how intricate and layered it is. At different points in history, this topic was swayed away by other topic areas—risk management and, recently, future adaptation pathways—which leaves the fact that “uncertainty discussion” as a sole topic is always tough and has always been associated with different topic areas. The experts in this area add another challenge to uncertainty studies, encompassing diverse perspectives, expertise, and use of this topic. Many people are working on this topic, but their approaches and interpretations differ significantly. For instance, probability theory is often seen as a common language when discussing uncertainty, but its meaning and uses vary. A statistician’s uncertainty concept differs from a climate modeller to a seismic hazard modeller, even though they use similar statistical frameworks. This difference in interpretation...